Climate Change Book Review

James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, (Bloomsbury USA, 2009)

James Hansen is a climate scientist whose scientific inquiries have led him to conclude that the climate is very sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide, and continued emissions of green house gases will have dire consequence for humanity. Unfortunately for humanity, his short-term predictions are turning out to be correct. Among scientists, he is more alarmist and more prepared to voice his concerns.

The book deals with his motivations, climate science, his efforts to persuade others to address his concerns, and some suggestions about what to do. The book addresses climate science in the context of significant public events in his life, such as White House briefings or the release of public papers. For those interested in climate science, the structure of the book is inefficient.

His motivation is concerns for his grandchildren, as the title suggests. His obvious passion for his concerns gives the book a layer of credibility that many other books look.

Events in his life that he chronicles (from his point of view) include:

1. Briefings of the Vice President Cheney's Climate Task Force in March 2001
2. A briefing of the White House Council on Environmental Quality in June 2003.
3. Several meetings with Senator Gore and others in 1989 and 1990 on, among other things, NASA priorities for future satellites.
4. The development of various articles for the public on the dangers of global warming in 2003 and 2004.
5. An invitation (eventually withdrawn) to make a formal high profile university lecture on climate prior to the 2004 United States election, a backup plan to publicly present the content of the speech through an impromptu university lecture, and attempts by his employer to restrain the effort.
6. A lecture in honour Charles David Keeling (the first scientist to rigorously track carbon dioxide in the atmospherea) the American Geophysical Union in December 2005, the related consternation in the White House and NASA headquarters, efforts by the Bush Administration to silence Hansen and other scientists, and related political issues.
7. Various efforts to inform foreign governments on global warming.

That Hansen felt compelled to tell his side of these events suggests he has received considerable criticism for his actions. Some criticism undoubtedly comes from fellow scientists, who believe he is overstating the problem, perhaps without adequate evidence. However, these personal stories of his bureaucratic and political losses may not be interest to many people.

Nevertheless, his stories are interesting reminders of the problems in persuading a large number of people to take a course of action they would not otherwise take, based on complicated science that few understand. His accounts of the censoring science by a political system that did not want to hear his message are disturbing for those interested in democracy. It is interesting that the political interests that were content to stifle informed decision-making domestically also felt compelled to aggressively promote democracy elsewhere.

Most would read this book by James Hansen for the climate science. He has a remarkable ability to explain the science clearly. Unfortunately, the scientific story is mixed in with personal stories, is therefore scattered throughout the book, and not organized as one scientific "story", but instead as a series of little "stories". Hansen addresses these scientific issues:

1. The difference between radiative forcings (those processes that affect energy balance and the temperature of the earth) and feedback mechanisms (which respond to changes in the earth's temperatures)
2. Various estimates of the positive and negative changes in radiative forcing sub-elements (carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases, solar output, black carbon aerosols, reflective aerosols, aerosol cloud changes, volcanoes, land cover changes, etc), and related error margins in the estimates, combining to give a positive radiative forcing for Earth in recent years.
3. The relationship between climate change and changes in radiative forcings, based on paleographic and other evidence.
4. The meaning of various levels of radiative forcing. (Of particular note was the observation that very small changes in radiative forcings from changes in earth's orbit, wobble and tilt, combined with various feedback mechanisms over long periods of time gave Earth ice ages in the last few million years.)
5. Problems in measuring radiative forcings related to aerosols.
6. The various methods of climate science: the application of physical laws, observations of current climate processes (which are much better in recent years); the study of historic climates, and climate models, and Hansen's preference for the first three..
7. The meaning of "dangerous" global warming, particularly in terms of ice sheet melting and collapse.
8. The time lag between the development of imbalances in Earth's energy, and the manifestation of changes in temperature.
9. Appropriate emission targets.

His policy presciptions are qualitatively similar to what one finds elsewhere. Where he differs is his sense of urgency. He is looking for decisive action now, rather than fumbling through intermediate processes such as the Kyoto Protocol, which he sees as, among other things, pandering to special interests. Decisive action now is, unfortunately, unrealistic, because as Hansen acknowledges, there are too many "special interests" - emission dependent corporations, their employees, coal and oil producing states and their dependent governments, federal politicians dependent on emission dependent electorates. A more viable option would be to commit to zero emissions in fifty years, and ask politicians to chart a realistic course to zero emissions. Give the "special interests" a chance for a fair return on their investments, training, and skills and a reasonable opportunity to find alternatives, but block continued investments in emission related activities, so that the "special interests" will have declining, and ultimately zero, influence.

Overall, this is worth the read.

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